Calling My Shot...NBA Free Agency.

With July 1st only one day away, I guess I should call my shot on how I think the NBA free agency is going to play out. Such a huge free agent class, deep in superstar talent, will make for an exciting month.

LeBron James - Everyone makes a big deal about the extra $30 million he'll give up if he walks away from Cleveland because they can offer him a slightly larger per year deal and offer one extra year. Truth is - It's probably closer to $12-15 million because any deal he signs will probably have a player option after the third year. He'll opt out and sign a max deal at that point. Plus, if he decides to sign in Miami, where there is no state tax, that number becomes even closer.

If you listen to the media, depending on the day, LeBron is a guarantee to sign with the Knicks, the Bulls, the Nets or joining D-Wade in Miami with Chris Bosh tagging along. Anything besides those four, I don't believe really have any serious shot...sorry Dallas, it just won't happen.

Where does LeBron sign? Let me say this. I can't think of a single superstar who has turned down Bird-rights max deal contract option to play for a Championship. Ever. I haven't even seen a player in the NBA sign for less than max to help ensure the signing of other quality players. Ever. I've seen many proclaim it and say they will, but in the NBA, I've never seen it. That being said, LeBron will not be the first.

LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers.

Disclaimer: In case I'm wrong, you'll see him in a New Jersey Nets uniform next year and thirty years from now we'll learn about LeBron's secret Russian bank account where his salary was annually doubled by his new owner.

How about the rest of the league?

Dwayne Wade - Miami. He'll opt out and resign a max deal or he'll just sign a max extention. A few costly lawsuits and nasty divorce mean Wade's going for the money now.

Chris Bosh - Adios Toronto, hello Miami. Bosh can say he's a center-piece all he wants but somewhere deep down, he knows he needs another superstar. I think he may worry that Lebron would cut in on his stats but looking at Dwayne Wade and how Shaq still flourished with him, it seems appealing. Cleveland will try very hard for a sign and trade but will fall short.

Dirk Nowitski - Opts out of $20+ million...idiot. He's resigning for with the Mavs. No doubt.

Amar'e Stoudemire - New York Knicks. Look for him to be rejoining the coach who never yelled when he didn't play defense.

Joe Johnson - New York Knicks. The Bulls will try as I really think the Hinrich move was specifically to target Joe Johnson but NY will overpay to get him.

Carlos Boozer - Chicago Bulls. Toss up here. New Jersey really needs a power forward after trading Yi Jianlin to Washington and they might overpay to get him after losing out on the Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Stoudemire lottery. Flip side: Becoming the old vet playing side by side with Kevin Durant on a young Thunder team might be too much to pass up. Same explanation for the Bulls with Derek Rose, Joakim Noah.

David Lee - New Jersey. With Amar'e coming to the Knicks, Lee becomes expendable. Look for New Jersey to push hard though. If/when they miss out on Boozer, Lee will sign. They will see Lopez and Lee as a fierce young front wall in the Eastern Conference. If the Bulls can't get Boozer, look for them to try for Lee.

Paul Pierce - Celtics. Another $20 million opt out idiot. He'll resign with Celtics for around 6 year, $85 million.

Luis Scola - Houston. He's restricted and expect the Rockets to match any deal for him.

Rudy Gay - Miami. They will slightly overpay to ensure Memphis doesn't match the deal but a legit 3rd option will make Miami Eastern Conference favorites.

Ray Allen - Cleveland or Miami. After making $20+ million last season for the Celtics and then having only one good game in the NBA Finals, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut and maybe accept a veteran reserve role status if he wants to play on a playoff legit team.

Brendan Haywood - Miami. They need a center who can focus solely on defense.

Shaquille O'Neal - Boston. He made $20 million last year but will probably get a 2 year, $10-12 million deal. Dallas is a longshot.

Others: Tony Allen - He'll sign with Cleveland or Miami but it will be the one the "other Allen" does not sign with; Shaquille O'Neal - Boston; Luke Ridnour - Knicks; Raymond Felton - Bobcats; Marcus Camby - Knicks; Kyle Korver - Miami or Knicks; Jordan Farmar - Lakers or Knicks; Udonis Haslem - Miami

Jermaine O'Neal is available but I really have no idea who will be dumb enough to pay anything more than the veteran's minimum for him. Whoever does, he'll sign before they change their mind.

2010-2011 NBA Champion? Three-Peat Los Angeles Lakers...come on, did you really think I'd pick against them?

Los Angeles Lakers - 2010 World Champions

NBA Finals time...

Kevin Garnett and Sasha Vujacic: Which was worse?

Props to my friend Ray for initially making this observation.

Kevin Garnett got called for a personal foul for this:


Sasha Vujacic initially got called for a technical but it was changed to a Flagrant Two:


Let's hope in the Finals, the Celtics preferential treatment doesn't continue...Just to be fair though, the League should suspend them both for the first two games of the NBA Finals.

NBA 2010 Playoffs

Some initial thoughts before I get into my predictions. The Lakers turning off the heat during the last few weeks may come back to bite them in the butt. I think they looked at the schedule and knew no one in the West could catch them for the #1 seed and I think they looked across the nation to Cleveland and realized they wouldn't catch Cleveland for the #1 overall seed so they went into coasting mode. However, the Orlando Magic snuck right in under their noses and secured the #2 overall seed which means that if the Lakers make it to the NBA Finals against Cleveland or Orlando, they do not have home court advantage.

Next, the Utah Jazz. What a disappointment last night against Phoenix. A win changes the whole face of the Western Conference playoffs. If the Jazz when they would have secured the #3 seed and had home court against a Brandon Roy-less Portland Trail Blazer team. Instead, they slide to the #5 seed, lose home court and have to play a veteran Denver Nugget team who has owned them all year long. It could have been Phoenix vs Denver first round (which would have been an amazing series). Unreal.

Lastly, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Charlotte Bobcats and the Milwaukee Bucks are in the playoffs...really, they are.

Predictions:

Let me say, I don't anticipate any upsets this season. If the #5 Jazz beat the #4 Nuggets, is it really an upset anyways? Truth be told, the best upset opportunity in the 1st round in Kevin Durant single-handedly beating the Lakers. Not going to happen in a 7 game series but they may put the Lakers to the test. My biggest "shocker" is that I think the Magic will once again slap down LeBron James and the Cavs and advance to the NBA Finals.

1st Round, Eastern Conference:
#1 Cleveland Cavs vs #8 Chicago Bulls - Cavs win in 5.
#2 Orlando Magic vs #7 Charlotte Bobcats - Magic win in 4.
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs #6 Milwaukee Bucks - Hawks win in 5.
#4 Boston Celtics vs #5 Miami Heat - Celtics win in 6.

1st Round, Western Conference:
#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City Thunder - Lakers win in 6.
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs #7 San Antonio Spurs - Mavs win in 5.
#3 Phoenix Suns vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers - Phoenix wins in 5.
#4 Denver Nuggets vs #5 Utah Jazz - Nuggets win in 6. (Note - This is my prediction to be the best 1st round series)
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Eastern Conference Semi-Finals:
#1 Cleveland Cavs vs #4 Boston Celtics - Cavs win in 6.
#2 Orlando Magic vs #3 Atlanta Hawks - Magic win in 6.

Western Conference Semi-Finals:
#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #4 Denver Nuggets - Lakers win in 6.
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs #3 Phoenix Suns - Mavs win in 7.
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Eastern Conference Finals:
#1 Cleveland Cavs vs #2 Orlando Magic - Magic win in 6.

Western Conference Finals:
#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #3 Phoenix Suns - Lakers win in 7.
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NBA Finals:
Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers - Lakers win in 6. You didn't really think I'd pick against the purple and gold, did you?

Kobe's Amazing Buzzer Beater

2009-2010 NBA Predictions

With the start of the NBA season tonight, here are my pre-season predictions.

Eastern Conference playoff teams:
1. Orlando Magic
2. Boston Celtics
3. Atlanta Hawks
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Chicago Bulls
6. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Detroit Pistons
8. New York Knicks

Western Conference playoff teams:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Utah Jazz
5. Denver Nuggets
6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. New Orleans Hornets
8. Memphis Grizzlies

Eastern Conference Finals:
Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic - Orlando wins in 7

Western Conference Finals:
Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs - Lakers win in 5

NBA Championship:
Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic - Lakers win in 6

2009 NBA Champions

Freddy Mercury - We Are The Champions (Live)
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NBA 2009 Playoff Predictions

EAST:

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #8 Detroit Pistons
Winner: Cleveland 4-1

#2 Boston Celtics vs #7 Chicago Bulls
Winner: Boston 4-2

#3 Orlando Magic vs #6 Philadelphia 76ers
Winner: Orlando 4-0

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs #5 Miami Heat
Winner: Atlanta 4-1

WEST:

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Utah Jazz
Winner: Lakers 4-1

#2 Denver Nuggets vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
Winner: Denver 4-3

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs #6 Dallas Mavericks
Winner: Dallas 4-2

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs #5 Houston Rockets
Winner: Houston 4-2
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2ND ROUND:

EAST:
Cleveland vs Atlanta - Winner: Cleveland 4-2
Boston vs Orlando - Winner: Boston 4-3

WEST:
Lakers vs Dallas - Winner: Lakers 4-1
Denver vs Houston - Winner: Denver 4-3
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Conference Championships
Cleveland vs Boston - Winner: Cleveland 4-3
Lakers vs Denver - Winner: Lakers 4-1
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NBA Championship
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
Finals MVP - Kobe Bryant

Los Angeles Lakers

After completing the recent road trip by going 6-0, but more importantly, after losing Andrew Bynum for at least the next 8-12 weeks, the Los Angeles Lakers won against the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers...on the ROAD.

This gives the Lakers tie break advantage if either face the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

A few notes:

The win against the Boston Celtics snapped Boston's 12 game winning streak. When they played on Christmas Day, the Lakers similarly broke the Celtics franchise record 19 game winning streak.

The Cavaliers were 23-0 before tonight's loss to the Lakers...